La tendencia a la sobrevaluación del tipo de cambio

Abstract

IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES THERE IS A TENDENCY TO THE OVERVALUATION OF THE EXCHANGE RATE. IT HAS TWO STRUCTURAL CAUSES: THE DUTCH DISEASE AND THE ATTRACTION OF HIGHER PROFIT AND INTEREST RATES, USUALLY PREVAILING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, ON FOREIGN CAPITALS. ECONOMIC POLICY PRESENTS FOUR MORE CAUSES FOR THIS: THE POLICY OF GROWTH THROUGH FOREIGN SAVINGS, THE CONTROL OF INFLATION BY WAY OF EXCHANGE RATE ANCHORS, THE POLICY OF €œCAPITAL DEEPENING"", AND THE POPULIST ASPECT LINKED WITH THE EXCHANGE RATE. THERE ARE TWO POSSIBLE OUTCOMES: EITHER THE COUNTRY NEUTRALIZES THIS TENDENCY AND ACHIEVES RAPID GROWTH, OR IT DOES NOT AND IT WILL SUFFER CYCLICAL BALANCE OF PAYMENT CRISES.