El régimen de metas de inflación en Brasil: evaluación y lecciones de política para los países latinoamericanos

Resumen

THIS PAPER STARTS BY EVALUATING THE GENERAL EXPERIENCE OF EMERGING MARKETS THAT HAVE TURNED TO INFLATION TARGETING. THEN, AN EVALUATION OF THE BRAZILIAN EXPERIENCE WITH INFLATION TARGETING IS UNDERTAKEN (1999-TODAY). AT THE START THE EXPERIENCE WAS HIGHLY SUCCESSFUL, LATER, DURING THE CRISES CAUSED BY THE INCREASE IN GLOBAL RISK AVERSION (2001-2002) INFLATION TARGETING PERFORMED QUITE WELL. IT WAS IN THE RECENT GOOD TIMES THAT INFLATION TARGETING REVEALED THE WEAKNESSES OF THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY. EXTREMELY HIGH INTEREST RATES ARE HAVING DETRIMENTAL EFFECTS ON GOVERNMENT FINANCES AND ON GROWTH. SOME LESSONS FOR LATIN-AMERICAN COUNTRIES ARE OUTLINED. FINALLY, THE REMAINING CHALLENGES FOR BRAZIL TO ACHIEVE SUSTAINED GROWTH WITH LOW INFLATION ARE DISCUSSED.