¿Pueden las reservas internacionales contribuir al crecimiento mexicano?

MORITZ CRUZ

Resumen

STARTING WITH MEXICO'S 1994-1995 CRISIS, THE UNPRECEDENTED ACCUMULATION OF INTERNATIONAL RESERVES HAS SPARKED A QUESTION ABOUT THEIR OPTIMUM SIZE AND APPROPRIATE USAGE, SPECIFICALLY THE CONTRIBUTION THAT THEY MAY MAKE TO GROWTH (A WIDELY ASKED QUESTION CURRENTLY IN VOGUE IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD). WITH REGARD TO OPTIMUM SIZE, STUDIES HAVE USED ARBITRARY CRITERIA BASED ON THE VULNERABILITY OF THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS THROUGH THE RATIO OF INTERNATIONAL RESERVES TO IMPORTS AND THROUGH THE GUIDOTTI-GREENSPAN RULE AND THE CRITERIA CALLED THE MAXIMUM EXTERNAL SUSTAINABLE SHIELD. HOWEVER, NO STUDY HAS MANAGED TO DETERMINE WITH PRECISION THE OPTIMUM LEVEL OF RESERVES AND, IN THIS CONTEXT, THE ACCUMULATION OF INTERNATIONAL RESERVES HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH AN OPPORTUNITY COST. THIS COST CAN BE UNDERSTOOD AS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WHAT THE RESERVE MIGHT HAVE EARNED AND WHAT IT REALLY EARNS.

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